Affinity Insights – Issue 18 December 2021

Welcome to our 18^th edition of Affinity Insights.

As we close this year out and look ahead to what  2022 will hold, it is an opportunity to reflect on what has been yet another big year, while once again operating during a pandemic. We would like to take a moment to express our appreciation for your continued support and commitment throughout the year. We look forward to working with you in 2022.

We would like to use this edition of Affinity Insights to end the year on a positive note.

May your holiday season be warm, joyous, and full of festivities for you as well as your families. Wishing you and your loved ones a happy and healthy New Year.

From Rodney M. DeGabriele and Tony Vikram

Our office will be closed between the Christmas and New Year holiday period; 

We will close from 12 noon on Thursday, 23^rd December.

We will reopen on Monday, 17^th January 2022.

Should you have any queries during this time, please email Loretta DeGabriele at loretta.degabriele@affinityprivate.com.au or if your matter is urgent, please contact either Rodney DeGabriele on 0488 993 175  or Tony Vikram on 0421 344 238.

Jessica Genovas

We are delighted to announce that Jessica Genovas has moved into her new role as Associate, working along side Rodney DeGabriele and Alison Warner.

Jessica became a part of the Affinity team in April 2020 and has proven her dedication to her ongoing development and is currently studying her Master of Financial Planning . Jessica is strongly dedicated to maximising her capabilities to service every client in the best way possible to help them achieve their ultimate financial milestones and objectives.

Congratulations Jessica, we wish you all the best in your new role.

Elisha Oliver

We are delighted to announce that Elisha Oliver has re-joined the Affinity team in the role of Advice Operations.

Elisha originally joined the Affinity team in 2015 and has been on extended leave after having her third child. With a Bachelor’s Degree in Business (Management and Human Resources), a Diploma in Financial Planning and over 17 years working in the financial services industry, Elisha returns more motivated and willing to work than ever.

We would like to welcome Elisha back to the team.

In this month’s Market Update, we showcase how we can use the changing business cycle as a signpost for asset class and investment style performance, a strategy known as regime based investing. Over the medium term, economic fundamentals are different across different stages of the business cycle and in turn asset class performance also varies. When the economy is booming, it is good to hold equities and other growth assets while value stocks should also outperform. Bond yields tend to rise in this environment, so you want less bond exposure. In a recession however this gets turned upside down.

Our latest Market Update is now available to view here.

Around this time last year, we made three broad market predictions:

• The availability of vaccines would see a return to relative normalcy in the second half of 2021.
• A recovery in growth and higher real interest rates would drive a rotation from growth into value stocks.
• Equity markets will eventually come under pressure from rising long term interest rates.

We were broadly correct on Covid with the notable exception of China and Australia. If you are vaccinated, life is pretty close to normal in most major economies.  A slow vaccine rollout and a last ditch failed elimination strategy delayed Australia’s return to normalcy. China’s persistent desire to eliminate Covid continues to impact life there in a major way.

Our performance on the other two predictions was more mixed. There was a rotation from growth to value stocks, but it was relatively short lived. Real rates remained anchored at very low levels. However, there has been recent significant weakness in the hyper speculative part of growth indexes, with non-profitable tech down around 40% from its peak. At times equity markets seemed to be stressed by rising interest rates, but rates never really rose enough to pressure markets, with the US 10-year yield peaking around 1.75% in late March. We, along with most others, underestimated the inflationary impact of Covid related supply chain disruptions crashing into a wave of demand related to economic re-opening.

Given how markets evolved this year, we were quite active in moving the portfolios around to take advantage of opportunities and avoid risks. Our expectation is that next year won’t be much different.

Read the full article here.

Small-business owners love what they do, and they play an important role in supporting our local communities. From providing a hometown feel to working hard to know their neighbours, these small companies do a lot to help others who live nearby in many ways. When it comes to showing your support for small businesses, it is important to do so, and not just to help them gain revenue and stay operational. They rely on the support of loyal customers to keep their doors open, and when you spend money at a small business, you’ll gain plenty of wonderful benefits as well.

• Personalised customer service – small business owners value the relationships they have with all their customers. They rely on regular customers as well as periodic customers to not only help them earn a profit but also to spread the word to others about their company.
• Innovative and competitive – because it can be more difficult for small businesses to stay relevant, they constantly must work on either adding new products to their shelves and/or new benefits for their customers. This generates healthy competition with their larger competitors. It also encourages small companies to be innovative, adding to their offering to keep customers revisiting their business.
• Community support – by supporting a small business, you’re also supporting the local community. Spending your money there helps to stimulate the local economy. The support of the community works both ways when it comes to buying from and owning a small business. Every purchase made from these companies helps the owner provide wages for their workers, keep the lights on, and put food on the table for their families. Local businesses give the community its unique characteristics.